Integrating direct messaging with flood alerts and warnings:insights into effectiveness from a registered public user population

Direct messaging involving simultaneous mass transmission of brief text or voice messages to large numbers of recipients has become a frontline method in flood hazard communications. Messages are intended to serve as cues, drawing recipients' attention to changing conditions, yet the actual effectiveness of direct messaging among recipient groups remains under-examined. This article considers direct messaging within the Floodline public flood warning service in Scotland, implemented by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA). Within Floodline, messaging is integrated with alerting and warning information, termed straightforwardly ‘Flood Alerts’ and ‘Flood Warnings’. Collaborating with SEPA, we conducted an online questionnaire survey of registered Floodline direct messaging recipients. In this article, our analysis focusses specifically on responses to three open-ended questions included in this survey, with an iterative qualitative coding approach employed to interpret themes of meaning from the question responses. This analysis gives a clear indication that recipients value Floodline and direct messaging. However, there are also questions raised over the utility of Flood Alerts and related messaging, which we elaborate in the findings and discussion, along with the scope for adding content, linking to other information, and developing closer relationships. Changes being developed by SEPA align with several of these findings.</p

Social influences on flood preparedness and mitigation measures adopted by people living with flood risk

This paper aims to analyse evidence, based on one of the largest and most representative samples of households previously flooded or living with flood risk to date, of social patterns in a range of flood resilience traits relating to preparedness prior to a flood (e.g., property adaptations, contents insurance, etc.) and mitigations enacted during and immediately following a flood (e.g., receiving a warning, evacuation into temporary accommodation, etc.). The data were collected from a 2006 survey of 1223 households from a variety of locations across Scotland between one and twelve years after major local floods. Our analysis identifies remarkably few social differences in flood preparedness and mitigation measures, although some aspects of demography, housing and length of residence in an area, as well as personal flood history, are important. In light of this finding, we argue that social differences in vulnerability and resilience to flooding arise from deep-seated socio-economic and socio-spatial inequalities that affect exposure to flood risk and ability to recover from flood impacts. The engrained, but well-meaning, assumption in flood risk management that impoverished households and communities are lacking or deficient in flood preparedness or mitigation knowledge and capabilities is somewhat pejorative and misses fundamental, yet sometimes invisible, social stratifications play out in subtle but powerful ways to affect households’ and communities’ ability to avoid and recover from floods. We argue that general poverty and inequality alleviation measures, such as tax and welfare policy and urban and community regeneration schemes, are likely to be as, if not more, important in alleviating social inequalities in the long-term impacts of floods than social targeting of flood risk management policy

Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza

Antiviral treatment offers a fast acting alternative to vaccination; as such it is viewed as a first-line of defence against pandemic influenza in protecting families and households once infection has been detected. In clinical trials, antiviral treatments have been shown to be efficacious in preventing infection, limiting disease and reducing transmission, yet their impact at containing the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm outbreak was limited. To understand this seeming discrepancy, we develop a general and computationally efficient model for studying household-based interventions. This allows us to account for uncertainty in quantities relevant to the 2009 pandemic in a principled way, accounting for the heterogeneity and variability in each epidemiological process modelled. We find that the population-level effects of delayed antiviral treatment and prophylaxis mean that their limited overall impact is quantitatively consistent (at current levels of precision) with their reported clinical efficacy under ideal conditions. Hence, effective control of pandemic influenza with antivirals is critically dependent on early detection and delivery ideally within 24 h.Andrew J. Black, Thomas House, M. J. Keeling and J. V. Ros

Automated lithological mapping using airborne hyperspectral thermal infrared data: A case study from Anchorage Island, Antarctica

The thermal infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum has considerable potential for mineral and lithological mapping of the most abundant rock-forming silicates that do not display diagnostic features at visible and shortwave infrared wavelengths. Lithological mapping using visible and shortwave infrared hyperspectral data is well developed and established processing chains are available, however there is a paucity of such methodologies for hyperspectral thermal infrared data. Here we present a new fully automated processing chain for deriving lithological maps from hyperspectral thermal infrared data and test its applicability using the first ever airborne hyperspectral thermal data collected in the Antarctic. A combined airborne hyperspectral survey, targeted geological field mapping campaign and detailed mineralogical and geochemical datasets are applied to small test site in West Antarctica where the geological relationships are representative of continental margin arcs. The challenging environmental conditions and cold temperatures in the Antarctic meant that the data have a significantly lower signal to noise ratio than is usually attained from airborne hyperspectral sensors. We applied preprocessing techniques to improve the signal to noise ratio and convert the radiance images to ground leaving emissivity. Following preprocessing we developed and applied a fully automated processing chain to the hyperspectral imagery, which consists of the following six steps: (1) superpixel segmentation, (2) determine the number of endmembers, (3) extract endmembers from superpixels, (4) apply fully constrained linear unmixing, (5) generate a predictive classification map, and (6) automatically label the predictive classes to generate a lithological map. The results show that the image processing chain was successful, despite the low signal to noise ratio of the imagery; reconstruction of the hyperspectral image from the endmembers and their fractional abundances yielded a root mean square error of 0.58%. The results are encouraging with the thermal imagery allowing clear distinction between granitoid types. However, the distinction of fine grained, intermediate composition dykes is not possible due to the close geochemical similarity with the country rock

Meltwater flow through a rapidly deglaciating glacier and foreland catchment system: Virkisjökull, SE Iceland

Virkisjökull is a rapidly retreating glacier in south-east Iceland. A proglacial lake has formed in the last ten years underlain by buried ice. In this study we estimate water velocities through the glacier, proglacial foreland and proglacial river using tracer tests and continuous meltwater flow measurements. Tracer testing from a glacial moulin to the glacier outlet in September 2013 demonstrated a rapid velocity of 0.58 m s�1. This was comparable to the velocity within the proglacial river, also estimated from tracer testing. A subsequent tracer test from the same glacial moulin under low flow conditions in May 2014 demonstrated a slower velocity of 0.07 m s�1. The glacier outlet river sinks back into the buried ice, and a tracer test from this sink point through the proglacial foreland to the meltwater river beyond the lake indicated a velocity of 0.03 m s�1,suggesting that an ice conduit system within the buried ice is transferring water rapidly beneath the lake. Ground penetrating radar profiles confirm the presence of this buried conduit system. This study provides an example of rapid deglaciation being associated with extensive conduit systems that enable rapid meltwater transfer from glaciers through the proglacial area to meltwater rivers

Britain’s highest bog: can we unlock its secrets?

The Glenfeshie Mòine Mhór (Great Moss) is Britain’s highest bog, the largest bog in the Cairngorm Mountains (Scotland) and a water source area for the River Spey. The area was managed primarily for sport hunting for about two centuries, but deer numbers have been heavily reduced in the last decade to allow regeneration of natural woodland and the return to more natural condition of all ecosystems including peatland. However, it may not be realistic to expect spontaneous improvement in peatland condition and ecosystem services provision in the harsh environment of the Mòine Mhór, which retains snow cover for more than half the year and differs floristically from lower-altitude bogs. To understand whether and where management intervention may be required, we need first to understand how the system works at scales ranging from microform to macrotope, and from sub-catchment to whole-system level. Multi-disciplinary condition and process studies (involving various collaborators) are in progress, with a current emphasis on streamflow generation and fluvial carbon loads. This presentation develops two sub-themes. First, ground survey and GIS analysis are used to address the questions: what are the special features of this bog; what is the nature and extent of degradation; and what are the implications for water delivered to the outflow streams? Secondly, a striking feature is the bare peat patches which were favourite resting places for deer on warm, dry summer days. The occurrence of seasonally extreme surface conditions seems a likely factor in preventing their recolonisation by bog plants now. Information about these conditions that cannot readily be accessed through direct observation, originating from temperature sensors and delivered at 60-minute intervals via a low power internet link, is explored in this context. Finally, we discuss aspects of the suitability of our investigation methods for remote and intermittently accessible field sites such as the Mòine Mhór

Social Influences on Flood Preparedness and Mitigation Measures Adopted by People Living with Flood Risk

From MDPI via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2021-10-15, pub-electronic 2021-10-21Publication status: PublishedThis paper aims to analyse evidence, based on one of the largest and most representative samples of households previously flooded or living with flood risk to date, of social patterns in a range of flood resilience traits relating to preparedness prior to a flood (e.g., property adaptations, contents insurance, etc.) and mitigations enacted during and immediately following a flood (e.g., receiving a warning, evacuation into temporary accommodation, etc.). The data were collected from a 2006 survey of 1223 households from a variety of locations across Scotland between one and twelve years after major local floods. Our analysis identifies remarkably few social differences in flood preparedness and mitigation measures, although some aspects of demography, housing and length of residence in an area, as well as personal flood history, are important. In light of this finding, we argue that social differences in vulnerability and resilience to flooding arise from deep-seated socio-economic and socio-spatial inequalities that affect exposure to flood risk and ability to recover from flood impacts. The engrained, but well-meaning, assumption in flood risk management that impoverished households and communities are lacking or deficient in flood preparedness or mitigation knowledge and capabilities is somewhat pejorative and misses fundamental, yet sometimes invisible, social stratifications play out in subtle but powerful ways to affect households’ and communities’ ability to avoid and recover from floods. We argue that general poverty and inequality alleviation measures, such as tax and welfare policy and urban and community regeneration schemes, are likely to be as, if not more, important in alleviating social inequalities in the long-term impacts of floods than social targeting of flood risk management policy

A New Time Series Similarity Measure and Its Smart Grid Applications

Many smart grid applications involve data mining, clustering, classification, identification, and anomaly detection, among others. These applications primarily depend on the measurement of similarity, which is the distance between different time series or subsequences of a time series. The commonly used time series distance measures, namely Euclidean Distance (ED) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), do not quantify the flexible nature of electricity usage data in terms of temporal dynamics. As a result, there is a need for a new distance measure that can quantify both the amplitude and temporal changes of electricity time series for smart grid applications, e.g., demand response and load profiling. This paper introduces a novel distance measure to compare electricity usage patterns. The method consists of two phases that quantify the effort required to reshape one time series into another, considering both amplitude and temporal changes. The proposed method is evaluated against ED and DTW using real-world data in three smart grid applications. Overall, the proposed measure outperforms ED and DTW in accurately identifying the best load scheduling strategy, anomalous days with irregular electricity usage, and determining electricity users' behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures conferenc

Structure and Vibrations of the Vicinal Copper (211) Surface

We report a first principles theoretical study of the surface relaxation and lattice dynamics of the Cu(211) surface using the plane wave pseudopotential method. We find large atomic relaxations for the first several atomic layers near the step edges on this surface, and a substantial step-induced renormalization of the surface harmonic force constants. We use the results to study the harmonic fluctuations around the equilibrium structure and find three new step-derived features in the zone center vibrational spectrum. Comparison of these results with previous theoretical work and weith experimental studies using inelastic He scattering are reported.Comment: 6 Pages RevTex, 7 Figures in Postscrip